Using GIS techniques to model the distribution of the economically important xaté palm Chamaedorea ernesti-augusti within the Greater Maya Mountains, Belize.

Abstract The purpose of this investigation was to model the distribution of the fishtail xate palm (´Chamaedorea ernesti‐augusti) and to investigate the effectiveness of using geostatistical techniques to map its distribution. The leaves of the Central American xate palm C. ernesti‐augusti are now extensively cut for the flori‐cultural industry; across its range, populations are being over‐harvested. In Central America, the Greater Maya Mountains (GMM), Belize are widely believed to be an abundance ‘hotspot’ for this species. In total, 220 sample sites were systematically located throughout the GMM, based on a fixed distance interval using the accessible track/road network. Species counts and environmental data were collected from each 20 m × 20 m plot. Statistical analyses were carried out using GenStat and Arc‐GIS. We used several semivariogram models, within bespoke GenStat procedures, to map the log‐transformed xate abundance data. Validation of models used the official GenStat Kcross‐validation proce...