Environmental and techno-economic assessment of power system expansion for projected demand levels in Kenya using TIMES modeling framework

Abstract This study develops a new national-scale bottom-up energy system optimization model called Kenya-TIMES. The model evaluates the implication of greenhouse gas emission's reduction on the techno-economic and environmental evolution of Kenya's power system under three government-projected electricity demand levels, which covers the 2020–2045 period. To assess the implications of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures, a business as usual and a carbon emission cap scenarios were developed. The model shows that energy security can be achieved under the two scenarios, and for all the three demand levels. The generation mix suggested by the model is dominated by renewable sources under the carbon emission cap scenario compared to the business as usual scenario. The higher share of renewable technologies under the carbon emission cap scenario results in lower emission but increased electricity cost. Consequently, to meet its emission reduction targets, the Kenyan government need to enact and implement policies that will enhance deployment of renewable energy technologies. The findings indicate that the Kenyan government should prioritize developing geothermal and hydropower resources in the short- to medium-term, which can provide affordable and secure energy while limiting GHG emissions.