Convective inhibition over the Vosges and water vapor variability during COPS IOP 8b

For operational forecasts anticipate convective inhibition processes is as important than convective initiation processes. Based on the 15th July 2007 case study this work shows how the morning shallow convection over the Vosges is inhibited while it develops over the Black Forest. This case occurs during IOP 8b of the Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS). This international field campaign took place during the summer of 2007 over the Vosges, the Rhine Valley and the Black-Forest. The aim of this intensive observation campaign was to study various phases of convection and convective environment and improve quantitative precipitation forecasts. Thanks to GPS tomography data the study show the differences of low-level water-vapor variability between Vosges and Black-Forest. The analysis of ground based and airborne lidar data suggests the importance of dry air layers advected from the south and the influence of the mountains and diurnal cycle of mountain breeze which interfere strongly with these layers preventing the dry air to reach the eastern side of the mountain and the Black Forest. This dynamics is confirmed by models, wind profiler and radiosounding data. So we show how the inhibition of the convection over the Vosges during this case study can be explained with the water vapor variability due to advection and local boundary layer processes.