A Preliminary Analysis of Distribution Characteristics of Maximum And Minimum Temperature and Diurnal Temperature Range Changes over China Under SRES B2 Scenario

In this paper, the PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, is employed to simulate the baseline (1961~1990) and future 2071-2100 (2080s) maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range changes under SRES B2 scenario over China. A comparison of the simulated baseline results with observations shows that PRECIS can well simulate the local distribution characteristics of maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range over China. Analyses of the simulated results in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to the baseline show that there would be an overall increasing trend in the maximum and minimum temperatures in annual, winter and summer over China and the warming amplitude in the north of China is projected to be greater than in the south. There would be an increasing trend of extreme hot temperature occurring in summer in Northeast China and a decreasing trend of extreme cold disaster occurring in winter in North China. The changes in the annual diurnal temperature range in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to the baseline are projected to decrease trend in the north of China and increase in the south of China. In winter diurnal temperature range would increase in the southern region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, decrease in East China, Northwest China and the middle of Inner Mongolia. In particular, a stronger low value center is projected to exist in the north of the Tibetan Plateau.