Refining benchmarks for soil organic carbon in Australia’s temperate forests

Abstract Soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Australia’s temperate forests have been overlooked in national soil databases and in global SOC analyses of natural ecosystems despite the importance of temperate forests to the global terrestrial carbon balance. This limits the potential to both predict change in SOC stocks in temperate Australia and to identify where and how SOC stocks can be managed to mitigate climate change. Based on data from 707 sites, we examine variations in SOC concentrations and stocks across a range of natural temperate broadleaf forests in south-eastern Australia. Comparisons with current Australia-wide databases highlight previous under-estimation of forest SOC concentrations, leading to substantial underprediction of SOC stocks in the most productive forests (e.g. this study’s mean of 207 Mg C ha−1 compared with a database mean estimate of 141 Mg C ha−1 for Tall open-forests to 30-cm soil depth). Random Forest models involving 27 environmental variables (representing climate, terrain, parent material, soil attributes, vegetation, and fire history) explained up to 79% of the variation in SOC concentrations and 77% of the variation in SOC stocks to 30-cm depth. Climate variables (precipitation, temperature) were of greatest importance to the prediction of both SOC concentrations and SOC stocks, tending to override the importance of terrain and fire-history variables at this study’s regional scale. While patterns in SOC concentrations and stocks were correlated, SOC concentrations were not a reliable proxy for SOC stocks to 10-cm depth, reiterating the importance of mass equivalent measures (i.e. soil bulk density) to assessing changes in soil carbon storage. Our study provides a timely check of the model-based estimates of SOC concentrations and stocks in Australia’s temperate forests that are currently available in nation-wide databases and improves the available information for defining benchmarks, and for identifying potential areas of SOC loss and gain, in programs that aim to mitigate climate change.