Under the Background of Medical Alliances Construction a Simulation Study on the Residents’ First Diagnosis Choice Behavior at Basic-medical Institutions Based on SD Model : —Taking Jiangsu province, China as an Example

Objective: Under the background of MAs construction, the SD model of residents’ first diagnosis choice at the basic-medical institutions was established to observe the change trend of the number of first medical diagnosis at the basic-medical institutions and the hospital with Jiangsu province as an example. Methods: Combined with the background of Jiangsu MAs construction, the data of Jiangsu statistical yearbook from 2013 to 2017 were used to make a simulation analysis on the factors affecting the choice of residents’ first medical diagnosis institutions by using the method of system dynamics. Results: All the five kinds of intervention behaviors can effectively affect the number of first medical diagnosis at the basic-medical institutions, but the effects are different. Conclusions: The model can objectively simulate the system structure and behavior rules, and can be used to predict the residents’ choice of the first medical diagnosis institutions. Among the five interventions, the construction of internal information platform of MAs and the sinking of quality medical resources in MAs can maximize the first-diagnosis rate of residents at the basic-medical institutions, which is of great significance for optimizing the structure of medical diagnosis and treatment and guiding residents to seek medical diagnosis in an orderly manner.