Establishment of a model for predicting sentinel lymph node metastasis in early breast cancer based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound and clinicopathological features

Background Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy (SLNB) is the standard procedure for axillary staging in clinically node-negative (cN0) breast cancer patients. However, the positive rate of SLNs among cN0 stage patients is 26-35%. The identification of appropriate candidates for SLNB is quite challenging. This study aimed to establish and verify a predictive model of SLN metastasis using contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) and other clinicopathological indicators. Methods The clinicopathological data of 224 patients who had undergone SLNB at the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University from June 2018 to July 2019 were analyzed retrospectively. The risk prediction model of SLN metastasis was established by logistic regression analysis. According to the β value of each variable in the model, a risk score system of SLN metastasis was established and verified using the internal population. The predictive model was prospectively applied to 73 patients from July 2019 to September 2019 to evaluate the clinical value of the model in patients with early breast cancer. Results Multivariate analysis confirmed that body mass index (BMI), SLN aspect ratio of CEUS mode, SLN aspect ratio of mammography, lympho-vascular invasion, and cytokeratin (CK)5/6 were independent risk factors for SLN metastasis. A scoring system was established according to the above risk factors, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn. After internal- and external verification, a corrected ROC curve was drawn, respectively. The ROC curve of the modeling group, internal verification group, and external verification group was 0.9075 (95% CI: 0.8616-0.9534), 0.8766 (95% CI: 0.8192-0.9341), and 0.8505 (95% CI: 0.7333-0.9676), respectively. Conclusions We constructed and verified a prediction model of SLN metastasis in early breast cancer. The model has a specific predictive value for preoperative evaluation of SLN status.