Uncertainty Analysis of the Conditional Exceedance Probability Calculation for a Probabilistically Significant SBO Sequence

AbstractThe Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization methodology combines traditional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach. Consequently, both stochastic uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty can be taken into overall consideration to evaluate the risk-informed safety margin. Generally, in calculation of the event sequence success criteria in traditional PSA, the result can only be either success (zero) or failure (unity), which is because uncertainties are not properly taken into consideration. In this paper, the conditional exceedance probability (CEP) of a probabilistically significant station blackout sequence of a typical three-loop pressurized water reactor was calculated with the consideration of both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties by using RELAP5. To get the probability density function of the peak cladding temperature (PCT) of a particular sequence and corresponding CEP, random sampling analysis of major plant status parameters and stoc...