Spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their driving factors based on PLS-SEM: A case study in Wuhan.

Abstract Globally, wetlands have been severely damaged due to natural environment and human activities. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their driving forces is essential for their effective protection. This study proposes a research framework to explore the interaction between the natural environment and human activities and its impact on wetland changes, by introducing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, then applying the methodology in Wuhan, a typical wetland city in China. The validity and reliability evaluation indicated that the PLS-SEM model is reasonable. The results showed that the area of wetlands in Wuhan decreased by 10.98% in 1990–2018 and four obvious direct pathways of influence were found. Positive soil and terrain conditions are conducive to maintaining wetlands, while rapid urbanization drastically reduce the distribution of wetlands. It is remarkable that the impact of climate on wetlands is gradually shifting from positive to negative. Furthermore, four potential indirect impact pathways affecting wetland distribution shown that urbanization and climate enhance the negative impact of terrain on wetland distribution, while their impacts on soil weaken soil's direct positive impact. This study provides a quantitative methodology for determining the causes of wetland loss; it can also be applied to other cities or regions, which is essential for applying more effective measures to protect wetlands.