Multivariate copula temporal modeling of intersection crash consequence metrics: A joint estimation of injury severity, crash type, vehicle damage and driver error

This study employs a copula-based multivariate temporal ordered probit model to simultaneously estimate the four common intersection crash consequence metrics – driver error, crash type, vehicle damage and injury severity – by accounting for potential correlations due to common observed and unobserved factors, while also accommodating the temporal instability of model estimates over time. To this end, a comprehensive literature review of relevant studies was conducted; four different copula model specifications including Frank, Clayton, Joe and Gumbel were estimated to identify the dominant factors contributing to each crash consequence indicator; the temporal effects on model estimates were investigated; the elasticity effects of the independent variables with regard to all four crash consequence indicators were measured to express the magnitude of the effects of an independent variable on the probability change for each level of four indicators; and specific countermeasures were recommended for each of the contributing factors to improve the intersection safety...