From anticipation to behavioral intention: Insights into human processing of multiple retrieval cues in road traffic

Abstract Anticipation in road traffic enables safer and more comfortable driving. Anticipatory driving is achieved through effective retrieval of prior driving-relevant knowledge using mental models and appropriate cues. Knowing when and which retrieval cues have a critical impact on the anticipation process and how information compatibility affects anticipation can be the basis for supporting people in anticipating and appropriate behavior in road traffic. For generating in-depth insights into the processing of retrieval cues, a video-based experimental study was conducted combining specific compatible and incompatible retrieval cues in urban driving scenarios. From a driver's perspective, participants were asked to anticipate in a two-step approach (measuring low and high certainty anticipation) whether a vehicle ahead would enter their lane or turn onto another street due to a lane blockage ahead. Further, they choose their preferred behavioral intention (accelerate, decelerate or maintain speed). In general, drivers strived for coherent situation representation, and in this process, multiple retrieval cues influenced anticipation in different ways. Participants were more likely to be consistent in their anticipation response. That is, they tend to follow their first intention (equivalent low and high certainty anticipation for either lane change or turn) even in the presence of incompatible stimuli. Inconsistent compared to consistent anticipation responses, however, led to reduced subjective confidence, and in part to increased criticality. Not only anticipation but also intended behavior was influenced by retrieval cues. In accordance, the anticipation of others' behaviors can be considered a predictor of specific intended behavior in road traffic.