Minute-scale power forecast of offshore wind turbines using long-range single-Doppler lidar measurements

Abstract. Decreasing gate closure times on the electricity stock exchange market and the rising share of renewables in today's energy system causes an increasing demand for very short-term power forecasts. While the potential of dual-Doppler radar data for that purpose was recently shown, the utilization of single-Doppler lidar measurements needs to be explored further to make remote-sensing-based very short-term forecasts more feasible for offshore sites. The aim of this work was to develop a lidar-based forecasting methodology, which addresses a lidar's comparatively low scanning speed. We developed a lidar-based forecast methodology using horizontal plan position indicator (PPI) lidar scans. It comprises a filtering methodology to recover data at far ranges, a wind field reconstruction, a time synchronization to account for time shifts within the lidar scans and a wind speed extrapolation to hub height. Applying the methodology to seven free-flow turbines in the offshore wind farm Global Tech I revealed the model's ability to outperform the benchmark persistence during unstable stratification, in terms of deterministic as well as probabilistic scores. The performance during stable and neutral situations was significantly lower, which we attribute mainly to errors in the extrapolation of wind speed to hub height.