Models of Eradicating Virus

To eradicate Ebola, we build models from 5 aspects. Firstly, we build disease transmission model with the example of Uganda, one of the countries which have Ebola infection. This model aims to analyze the relationship between the spread of Ebola and the measures of controlling disease. According to the relationship within people in different period of disease, we establish differential equations, and obtain the spread forecasting of Ebola. By comparing the results of different control measures, we find that it is important to isolate patients in time and strengthen the health awareness of the public. Secondly, to determine the quantity of the medicine needed and the frequency of drug supply, we use the method of fitting curve and ANOVA. According to the infection rate, we find that the need of drugs is urgent and the supply of new drugs must be completed in 4 years. In addition, we calculate the supply of drugs is 2.2 million every 4 years. Thirdly, to provide financial support to Uganda with drugs needed, we want to know the cost of drugs. To solve this problem, we use the method of linear interpolation to get the coherent cases data from 2000 to 2014, then we use grey prediction method to estimate the number of people at risk of infection from 2015 to 2025. Finally, we assess the spending of drugs according to the cost of the different stages of pharmaceuticals available in the Reference [1] . The cost of drugs shows an upward trend year by year, and in this year, drug investment of $2054.66million is still needed. In addition, to reduce drug price and compress the drug sales, we devise a scheme to provide financial support for pharmaceutical companies on the drug manufacture with the method of nonlinear programming. The best of the programming result for pharmaceutical companies is to provide them with $208 million’s government budget and $207.3432 million’s public health benefits in drug development stage, $200.6 million’s government budget and $143.23 million’ public health benefits in drug sales stage. Finally, we design an evaluation model to establish cooperation among companies to reduce the cost and risk according to the different advantages of pharmaceutical companies. Likewise, other African countries affected by Ebola, such as Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, can be analyzed with the same models above to determine the spread of the disease, the quantity of the medicine needed, the cost and the investment of drugs.