CMEMS-Based Coastal Analyses: Conditioning, Coupling and Limits for Applications

Recent advances in numerical modelling, satellite data and coastal processes, together with the rapid evolution of CMEMS products and the increasing pressures on coastal zones, suggest the timeliness of extending such products towards the coast. The CEASELESS EU H2020 project combines Sentinel and in-situ data with high-resolution models to predict coastal hydrodynamics at a variety of scales, according to stakeholder requirements. These predictions explicitly introduce land discharges into coastal oceanography, addressing local conditioning, assimilation memory and anisotropic error metrics taking into account the limited size of coastal domains. This paper presents and discusses the advances achieved by CEASELESS in exploring the performance of coastal models, considering model resolution and domain scales, and assessing error generation and propagation. The project has also evaluated how underlying model uncertainties can be treated to comply with stakeholder requirements for a variety of applications, from storm-induced risks to aquaculture, from renewable energy to water quality. This has led to the refinement of a set of demonstrative applications, supported by a software environment able to provide met-ocean data on demand. The paper ends with some remarks on the scientific, technical and application limits for CMEMS-based coastal products and how these products may be used to drive the extension of CMEMS towards the coast, promoting a wider uptake of CMEMS-based predictions.