Uncertainty analysis based on non-parametric statistical modelling method for photovoltaic array output and its application in fault diagnosis

Abstract Fault diagnosis is crucial for photovoltaic (PV) power generation, but the output uncertainty characteristics of PV arrays caused by different failures and their fluctuations make them facing new challenges. The parameter estimation (PE) method is widely used for uncertainty analysis, but there exist big differences between the PE results and the real output distributions. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a method for acquiring the fault diagnosis threshold based on non-parametric kernel density estimation (NKDE). First, the distribution characteristics of PV arrays output are statistically analysed, it is found that current and power are mainly affected by the solar irradiance, resulting in strong volatility and uncertainty, which makes it hard to get the threshold for fault diagnosis, thus we propose new three status indicators to finish it. Then, the probability models of the three indicators are built based on the kernel density estimation (KDE) method, by assigning the confidence values of the models, the fault diagnosis threshold intervals can be obtained. Verification shows that NKDE method performed better than traditional PE method in fitting the distribution of the PV arrays output, it does not need prior knowledge of the probability density function. And the proposed fault diagnosis method proves it is feasible to apply the uncertainty analysis method to PV array fault diagnosis. The paper provides a new idea for setting the dynamic threshold for PVarray fault diagnosis.