The Mathematic Modeling of Process Economization of Natural Resources

The economic view of resources distinguishes between the term of a “natural resource” and an “economic resource”. The “natural” resource becomes economically interesting only if it fulfills the following two conditions: (1) there are technologies that enable the obtaining (drilling) and utilization of natural resources; and (2) there are prices and conditions that enable a meaningful usage of the resources. The availability of condition two is being checked by the projects’ financial analyses of the exploration and drilling. The main task is to find out what kind of methods is available for use in the oil deposit exploration and what strategy of follow-up mining to choose so that the expected net present value (E[NPV]) of the whole process is the highest one. If the expected NPV is positive, the natural resource localized in the deposit justifies the economic resource and is therefore usable in practice. The problem is solved by means of the sequential decision tree of the project, from which on the basis of the detailed analyses of its relevant substructures (“case based reasoning” approach) the model of dependence of the expected NPV on price of the drilling rights is derived. The interpretation is accompanied by a specific case study of the exploration and mining analyses of an oilfield.