Understanding contrasting narratives on carbon dioxide capture and storage for Dutch industry using system dynamics

Abstract Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) can reduce CO2 emissions, but there is disagreement on its role. The disagreement is reflected in stark differences in stakeholders’ narratives on CCS. In the Netherlands, one extreme narrative focusses on CCS as part of a just transition and another on CCS as contributing to carbon lock-in. These narratives reflect different expectations of dynamic feedbacks around CCS deployment in the specific Dutch industrial context. This paper describes an alternative narrative that can advance the debate on what role CCS may play. Qualitative system dynamics based on interviews with experts is applied to identify the systemic feedback mechanisms that drive the dynamics of CCS in the Dutch industrial system transition, according to the two narratives. We find that CCS may reinforce carbon lock-in through the feedback mechanisms of legitimising, crowding out, and integration, and that CCS may play a part in a just climate transition through employment, economic, and environmental mechanisms. We combine these mechanisms into our alternative framing of CCS that could align the interests of different stakeholders: regulating CCS carefully to maximise its social and climate benefits and minimise the build-up of vested interests and carbon lock-in.