A comprehensive evaluation model of regional atmospheric environment carrying capacity: Model development and a case study in China

Abstract Atmospheric environment is a complex system affected by economy, society, population and other factors. Based on DPSIRM framework, scientific relationships among those factors were reflected and inherent mechanism of the complex system was studied. 20 indicators were selected to construct an evaluation index system. Optimizing Projection Pursuit by Simulated Annealing algorithm, the Coupling Simulated Annealing-Projection Pursuit model was established to calculate a comprehensive index, which was used to evaluate the regional Atmospheric Environment Carrying Capacity. The results showed that the Driving force and Pressure subsystems occupied a leading position on the whole system. Economic development, urbanization process, population growth and pollutant emission needed to be concerned to maintain the harmony of the complex system. Influence weights of indicators were quite different from each other. The top 5 indicators were: the amount of industrial smoke and dust emissions, the amount of automobile, the comprehensive energy consumption of 10,000 Yuan industrial output value, the annual average wind speed and the number of days of air quality reached the national standard’s second level. By analyzing the evaluation results, Atmospheric Environment Carrying Capacity was on the rise in 2006–2015, which suggested Chengdu’s atmospheric environment showed a good condition during these years. However, with the rapid industrialization, urbanization and accompanying pollution, we should boost the corresponding exhaust gas treatment capacity to keep its environmental healthy.