Developing and verifying a fumigant loss model for bulk stored grain to predict phosphine concentrations by taking into account fumigant leakage and sorption

Abstract To ensure fumigation effectiveness and address phosphine resistance concerns, fumigant concentrations and movement in a grain storage silo need to be understood. A mathematically accurate fumigation model was developed that is capable of predicting fumigant concentration and movement throughout a grain storage silo that takes into account fumigant loss from leakage and sorption, and was verified with experimental fumigation data. Equations estimating fumigant leakage and sorption were developed based on literature values and added to an existing finite element model. Fumigation data was used from a fumigation conducted on an Australian made silo filled with 45.5 tonnes of maize in Manhattan, Kansas. Two verifications were conducted based on phosphine concentration release times of 24 h and 30 h, with both verifications demonstrating accurate prediction of phosphine fumigant values and trends. The two verifications resulted in concentration-time products that were within 0.9% and 4.3% of the experimental values, respectively. The fumigation model is most accurate during the times of highest phosphine concentration. However, the model under predicted phosphine concentrations during the first 12 h of fumigation and over predicted phosphine concentrations beyond the first six days of fumigation. This fumigation model was found to be sufficiently accurate to allow for future experimentation on predicting fumigant concentrations as a function of environmental conditions and operational variable.