Estimation of Bid Curves in Power Exchanges using Time-varying Simultaneous-Equations Models

Simultaneous-equations model (SEM) is generally used in economics to estimate interdependent endogenous variables such as price and quantity in a competitive, equilibrium market. In this paper, we have attempted to apply SEM to JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange) spot market, a single-price auction market, using the publicly available data of selling and buying bid volumes, system price and traded quantity. The aim of this analysis is to understand the magnitude of influences to the auctioned prices and quantity from the selling and buying bids, than to forecast prices and quantity for risk management purposes. In comparison with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation where the estimation results represent average values that are independent of time, we employ a time-varying simultaneous-equations model (TV-SEM) to capture structural changes inherent in those influences, using State Space models with Kalman filter stepwise estimation. The results showed that the buying bid volumes has that highest magnitude of influences among the factors considered, exhibiting time-dependent changes, ranging as broad as about 240% of its average. The slope of the supply curve also varies across time, implying the elastic property of the supply commodity, while the demand curve remains comparatively inelastic and stable over time.