Findings in Medicine Forecast in Cases of Hydrometeorological Phenomenon in Chiapas, Mexico

Incorporating forecasts for situations of natural disasters may be of great use for knowing ahead of time about the requirements of the actual demands of the victims. It makes it possible to show a more efficient capacity of response when facing the negative impacts of a natural disaster. This study case was developed in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, because it is a location where a natural disaster has a significant adverse impact due to the existing social vulnerability. This research integrates the use of time series in order to predict the demand for medicine des-tined to treat acute respiratory infections; a disease which originates from the impact of hydrometeorological events in that state. This study was developed to estimate the demand to provide the population in advance during the following period and by that be able to avoid diseases and even the loss of human lives caused by them. In the course of the research, it was detected that the consumption of medicine for the treatment of acute respiratory diseases shows a decreasing trend, which is probably related to the fact that there are more emergency declarations caused by heatwaves.