Did Climate Change Affect the Social Stability of Chinese Agrarian Economy in the Past 2000 Years? A Positive Analysis Based on Paleo-climatic Reconstruction Data and Historic Data

Based on time series data of paleo-climate reconstruction data on temperature, historical data on natural disaster, rice price, and social instability in China over the past 2000 years, this paper tests the correlation between climate change and social instability in the short and long run. It finds that climate change is an important variable that impacts Chinese social stability, namely, a higher (lower) temperature over (to) the mean, reduces (raises) social instability, while the impact of snow anomaly is structural. Furthermore, they both have long run impact on social instability. Though other factors also exert their impact on social instability, their impacts are less important than that of climate change. This verifies our basic analytic framework on climate change and long run instability of Chinese agrarian economy, and will become a valuable historical experience for combating nowadays global warming.