Empirical Research and Forecasting Based on Hungarian and World Economic Data Series

Estimates have been made of many basic economic elements to demonstrate the existence of Kondratieff cycles. With time series data for over 100 years, the existence of such cycles could also be proved. We have analyzed Soviet and Hungarian industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as the world economy. With the exception of Hungarian agriculture, long waves have been proved. Similar fluctuations can be expected in the future. It is likely that the downswing in the Kondratieff cycle began in the 1970s, and coincided with a downturn in a century-old trend-curve. The downswing could end at different times for individual items. The start of the next upswing can be expected in the 1995–2000.