Satellite-based spatiotemporal trends of ambient PM2.5 concentrations and influential factors in Hubei, Central China

Abstract Accurate estimations of the concentration of ambient fine-particle matter with aerodynamic diameters of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) are necessary for human health studies. In this study, individual city-scale linear mixed effect models (LME) were employed to accurately estimate ground PM2.5 concentrations considering the spatiotemporal variability of the relationship between PM2.5 and atmospheric, meteorological, and land observations. The contributions of diverse influential factors including aerosol optical depth, planetary boundary layer height, relative humidity, vegetation index, and wind on local PM2.5 pollution were also determined. High correlation coefficient (R2 = 0.89) and low root mean square error (RMSE = 13.1 μg/m3) ensured satisfactory LME model performances in estimating ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. Spatiotemporal analyses of satellite-based PM2.5 showed high concentrations in eastern, southern, and northern Hubei, and low concentrations in the northwest and southeast because of unbalanced development. These analyses also displayed a mitigation trend of PM2.5 concentrations with a mean annual decline rate of 3–12% from 2016 to 2018. Moreover, from the statistical results of the model, the influential factor of aerosol optical depth was positively correlated with PM2.5 concentration, while planetary boundary layer height, relative humidity, and the normalized difference vegetation index were negatively correlated to local PM2.5 pollution. However, the winds had contradictory contributions on PM2.5 pollution; the northerly wind in western Hubei and the southerly and northeasterly winds in eastern Hubei alleviated local PM2.5 pollution, while the westerly wind in eastern Hubei facilitated PM2.5 diffusion between cities and aggravated PM2.5 pollution. The analysis of the spatiotemporal trend of local PM2.5 pollution at a city scale and the identification of the influence of wind on PM2.5 pollution provide a theoretical reference for regional pollution warnings and controls.