Mineral deposit discovery order and three-part quantitative assessments

Abstract Larger oil pools tending to be discovered earlier in an exploration play suggests the same pattern might exist for mineral deposits and could be used in predicting sizes of undiscovered deposits in mineral assessments. The volume of individual petroleum pools is highly correlated with surface projection area of pools in basins. The gradual additions to individual oil pool reserves over time adds to the appearance of larger pools being discovered earlier. Comparisons of surface projected areas of mineral deposits to their tonnages showed significant positive relationships in all 10 deposit types analyzed, suggesting that larger deposits should be discovered earlier than small deposits. Analysis of deposits consistent with three-part mineral assessments identified 9 combinations of mineral deposit types in large regions each containing multiple geological permissive tracts showing negative and 1 positive relationships of deposit size with discovery date significant at the 1% level. Twenty other tests of regions containing multiple permissive settings had either negative or positive relationships, none significantly different from those that might occur by chance. The large regions are mostly based on political boundaries. These results suggest mineral deposit discovery order is not the same as observed in oil pool exploration. The widely employed three-part quantitative mineral resource assessments are an obvious choice to benefit from patterns of declining deposit sizes with order of discovery. The 30 tests of relationships of discovery dates to deposit sizes demonstrated here were performed with deposits consistent with those in three-part assessments, but the large areas are not consistent with permissive tracts used in these assessments because they also contain substantial non-permissive geology. In 100 permissive tracts assessed with three-part assessments of multiple deposit types located throughout the world, the median number of known well-explored deposits is 1 and 90 percent of tracts report less than 9 deposits. The number of well-explored deposits in three-part assessed tracts tends to be quite small, limiting any ability to recognize a discovery order versus size relationship. In a three-part assessment of undiscovered porphyry copper deposits of South America, only 7 of 26 delineated tracts contained more than 2 known deposits and only 1 had a significant negative relationship between tonnage of known deposits and year of discovery (p = 0.04). Most predicted undiscovered deposits in this tract were expected to be under extensive unexplored post-mineralization cover, meaning the general grade and tonnage model should be applied because the discovery order process starts over. Projection of deposit sizes based on discovery order would provide a biased estimate of the undiscovered deposit sizes in this case. Thus, although a discovery order versus size relationship could exist in three-part mineral assessments, only rarely might the pattern be useful to predict sizes of undiscovered deposits.