Fluctuation Characteristics of the Flood Disaster in Hunan and Its Trend Prediction

With the statistical flood data from 1980 to 2007 in Hunan Province, by using grey system theory, a grey forecasting model GM(1,1) is built to analyze the fluctuation of the flood disaster and predict its trend. The results show that the flood disasters in Hunan have had an increase feature with cyclical fluctuation. In the next decade, light flood disasters might occur in 2010 and 2017, major disasters in 2012,2015 and 2019,and extraordinary ones in 2013 and 2016. In the province, the water-storage capacity is low because of the special geological conditions, many water conservancy facilities have been aged or damaged, and the disaster reduction consciousness of the people is poor. Those would be the factors affecting the occurrence of the disasters.