ALCES Online: Web-delivered Scenario Analysis to Inform Sustainable Land-use Decisions

Simulation models are yet to reach their potential to inform environmental sustainability, in part due to inaccessibility. ALCES Online (www.online.alces.ca) addresses this deficiency through web-delivery of high quality scenario analysis to individuals lacking a modeling background. The simulator is available for the province of Alberta, Canada, and efforts are underway to create versions for additional jurisdictions. The underlying scenario analysis is holistic through incorporation of a diverse set of drivers and indicators. Simulated land uses include energy, agriculture, mining, forestry, and human settlements; natural drivers such as fire are also included. Environmental and socioeconomic consequences are conveyed by tracking indicators related to landscape composition, wildlife, ecosystem services, and the economy. Dynamics are simulated spatially, and indicator performance presented using maps and regional summaries. Simulations span three time periods: pre-industrial, past century, and next 50 years. The pre-industrial phase informs baselines from which to assess land-use impacts. Simulation of the past century reconstructs changes caused by historical land use, thereby demonstrating capacity for land use to alter ecosystems over meaningful time. A range of future (50 year) simulations allow the user to assess potential consequences of decisions related to development rate, management practices, and ecosystem protection. To facilitate application across diverse initiatives, ALCES Online is customizable through user-defined study areas, indicators, and land-use strategies.