A probabilistic model for forecasting spot fires.

In the frame of the SALTUS programme funded by the EU, a work package aimed to build a probabilistic model for forecasting spot fires on the basis of a sample of real cases taken from the 5 countries of Southern Europe that are involved in the project. This qualitative, nondeterministic model, built on feedback of real experience, distinguishes a set of typical situations allowing to identify the conditions that facilitate spot fires by systematically gathering data concerning a large number of past fires.