Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment of low power and shutdown operations at a PWR: Phase 2 results

As a result of the Chernobyl accident and other precursor events (e.g., Diablo Canyon), the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) initiated an extensive project during 1989 to carefully examine the potential risks during Low Power and Shutdown (LP&S) operations. Shortly after the program began, an event occurred at the Vogtle plant during shutdown, which further intensified the effort of the LP&S program. In the LP&S program, one pressurized water reactor (PWR), Surry, and one boiling water reactor (BWR), Grand Gulf, were selected, mainly because they were previously analyzed in the NUREG-1150 Study. The Level-1 Program is being performed in two phases. Phase 1 was dedicated to performing a coarse screening level-1 analysis including internal fire and flood. A draft report was completed in November, 1991. In the phase 2 study, mid-loop operations at the Surry plant were analyzed in detail. The objective of this paper is to present the approach of the phase 2 study and the preliminary results and insights.