The Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS): verification of forecast sea ice concentration

In recent years, the demand for improved environmental forecasts in the Arctic has intensified as maritime transport and offshore exploration increase. As a result, Canada has accepted responsibility for the preparation and issuing services for the new Arctic MET/NAV Areas XVII and XVIII. Environmental forecasts are being developed based on a new integrated Arctic marine prediction system. Here, we present the first phase of this initiative, a short-term pan-Arctic 1/12° resolution Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS). RIPS is currently set to perform four 48 h forecasts per day. The RIPS forecast model (CICE 4.0) is forced by atmospheric forecasts from the Environment Canada regional deterministic prediction system. It is initialized with a 3D-Var analysis of sea ice concentration and the ice velocity field and thickness distribution from the previous forecast. The other forcing (surface current) and initialization fields (mixed-layer depth, sea surface temperature and salinity) come from the 1/4° resolution Global Ice Ocean Prediction System. Three verification methods for sea ice concentration are presented. Overall, verifications over a complete seasonal cycle (2011) against the Ice Mapping System ice extent product show that RIPS 48 h forecasts are better than persistence during the growth season while they have a lower skill than persistence during the melt period. A better representation of landfast ice, oceanic processes (wave–ice interactions, upwelling events, etc.) in the marginal ice zone and better initializing fields should lead to improved forecasts.