Assessment method and suppression strategy of operational risk in long-term power market considering the large-scale renewable energy

With the reform of power market and the large-scale grid connection of renewable energy, the operational risk assessment and risk suppression of the power market have received extensive attention. Taking the impact of renewable energy grid connection on the electricity market into account, this paper establishes an indicator system for the operational risk of the long-term electricity market, including electricity price fluctuation risk, power supply shortage risk, credit risk and system security risk, etc. Then based on the improved AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a comprehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate the operational risk of power market with renewable energy. Using test dataset, the proposed approach is applied to a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and its satisfactory impact on the risk assessment of the long-term power market. Lastly, this paper puts forward risk suppression measures from the aspects of decreasing market power and controlling credit risk.