Impact of climate change on the staple food crops yield in Ethiopia: implications for food security

Climate change is likely to make matters worse in Ethiopia, where the primary sources of food production depend on agriculture, mainly rain-fed agriculture. This study has two folds: first, we estimate the marginal impact of climate variables on the dominant staple food crops (teff, maize, wheat, and sorghum) grown in Ethiopia using feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity consistent standard error for 31 years’ time series data. Second, based on these estimates, we used regional climate models (UQAM _CRCM5 and SMHI_ RCA4) to identify yield sensitivity change in the future. A significant rise in mean monthly temperature and positive change in rainfall were observed from 1988 to 2018. Though an increase in maximum temperature had a favorable effect on all crop yields, a similar increase in minimum temperature was found to have an adverse impact. Since 2000 there has been a considerable increase in total production, but the increasing trends have been due to increases in area cultivated. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, the projection of climate impacts has suggested that with significant increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall result the decline of sorghum yield by 18.1% and wheat yield by 13.2%. However, the yield of teff and maize will be expected to increase by 20.2 and 17.9% respectively. We recommend adopting and expanding locally fitted climate-smart agricultural practices to minimize the long-run climate change impacts on crop production and address the country’s food security problems sustainably.