ESTIMATING DEMAND FOR SELWYN'S CYCLEWAYS

Selwyn District Council has a desired "outcome" for the future of “a Selwyn where people walk and cycle safely for transportation and enjoyment”. This will be achieved through a combination of inspired, ambitious walking and cycling education, engineering and enforcement projects. Selwyn doesn’t think in issues or problems - we call them challenges! Selwyn proposed a package of seven cycleway / walkway projects connecting their main towns, including Lincoln, Rolleston and Darfield to each other and to greater Christchurch. The paths also extend the Little River Rail Trail project. This paper describes the economic assessment approach taken in the funding approval processes for the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA). The economic assessment was based on the full procedures which, for walking and cycling projects, is a continuation of the simplified procedures (SP 11) demand estimation method. We used, however, several modifications to the SP 11 method to improve the accuracy of the predictions. Estimating the demand for new facilities is an important part of the economic justification for walking and cycling projects. This paper, based on a ViaStrada project for Selwyn District Council, discusses how this was done for the Selwyn projects. We note that this modified procedure is a variation on accepted New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) processes and has not yet received NZTA endorsement.