Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios

2018 
Climate change, land‐use abandonment, tourism and increasing ornamental trade are currently weakening barriers to alien plant invasions in mountain areas. We used a dynamic simulation model to forecast future invasion risks in a protected area in the French Alps, showing that propagule pressure and climate change will increase species richness, maximum elevation and regional range‐sizes of established aliens and newly introduced ornamental plants. Abandonment will open opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. Our work anticipates a previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps.
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