Antifragility of healthcare systems in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina: Learning from man-made and natural crises

Abstract Acute crises, such as a war or a pandemic, are the ultimate tests for health care systems' resilience (temporary response to stress with change and adaptation) and antifragility (permanent benefit from change in response to stress). In this Health Policy paper, we analyse and discuss how the healthcare systems of two European countries – Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia – adapted to war as a man-made disaster, and how they adapted to COVID-19 pandemic twenty-five years later. These countries experienced full scale wars in recent history, which significantly changed their political and healthcare systems. This experience prepared the countries for the response to the pandemic, which coincided with two earthquakes in Croatia. We argue that healthcare systems in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are not only resilient but antifragile, and that they benefited from stressors they were exposed to. The antifragility of the two systems were primarily based on human effort – the strength, adaptability and resilience of health care professionals. We will look at lessons from the wars that were applied to the pandemic and discuss newly recognized opportunities and improvements.