Review on Photovoltaic Power and Solar Resource Forecasting: Current Status and Trends

PV power intermittence impacts electrical grid security and operation. Precise PV power and solar irradiation forecasts have been investigated as significant reducers of such impacts. Predicting solar irradiation involves uncertainties related to the characteristics of time series and their high volatility, due to the dependence on many weather conditions. We propose a systematic review of PV power and solar resource forecasting, considering technical aspects related to each methodology. Our review covers the performance analysis of various physical, statistical and machine learning models. Those methodologies should contribute to decision making, being applicable to different sites and climatic conditions. A percentage of 42% of the analyzed articles develop hybrid approaches, 83% perform short term prediction, and more than 78% have as forecast goal PV power, solar irradiance, and solar irradiation. Considering spatial forecast scale, 66% predict single field forecast. As a trend for the coming years, we highlight the use of hybridized methodologies, especially those that optimize input and method parameters without loss of precision and post-processing methodologies aiming at improvements in individualized applications.