Establishment of agricultural drought loss models: A comparison of statistical methods

Abstract Agricultural drought loss models provide services for the rapid risk assessment of agricultural disasters, and regional disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. This paper takes wheat as an example, and chooses counties dominated by rain-fed farmland in Henan Province as the study area. Counties dominated by rain-fed farmland are determined by setting a rain-fed threshold that is related to the proportion of the effective irrigation area to the cultivated land area. Modeling samples are screened by considering both drought occurrence time and wheat yield reductions. Under different thresholds (30%, 40%, 50% and 60%), we use the yield loss ratio as the dependent variable and 24 standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index parameters as independent variables to build drought loss models using both a multivariate stepwise regression model and a random forest model. Yield loss ratio from 1990 to 2015 is calculated by decomposing historical wheat yield time series. 24 standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index variables are 1–3 months’ time scale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index during the growth period (from October to May of the following year) of winter wheat in Henan Province. The results show that the random forest-derived model outperforms the stepwise regression model in all tests. The accuracy of all the models increases with an increase of the proportion of the rain-fed threshold. When the rain-fed threshold is 60%, the R2 values of the random forest model and the multivariate stepwise regression equation are 0.720 and 0.523, respectively. The validation results show that the mean absolute error and the root mean square error of the multivariate stepwise regression are 1.38 times and 1.31 times larger than the mean absolute error and the root mean square error from the random forests model. Moreover, both models identify that standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices in October (sowing/planting stage) and February (overwintering stage) are important variables. However, the multivariate stepwise regression model fails to recognize the importance of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices during April–May (filling stage).