An agent-based model to simulate the cultivation pattern change of farmer households in the North China Plain

ABSTRACTThe North China Plain (NCP) is the primary wheat and maize production area in China. The NCP is currently experiencing rapid urbanization, and the cultivation pattern of farmer households is changing drastically, which could influence food security in this region. In this study, we developed an agent-based model to simulate the decision-making process of farmer households and analyze the influence of this process on food security based on a regional case study conducted in Luancheng County. The model was developed based on sampling survey data, remote-sensing data, and demographic data. The results predicted a decrease in the percentage of the area of Grain Maize cultivation from 94.85% in 2015 to 89.71% in 2020 and an increase in the percentage of Lawn cultivation area from 3.61% to 9.26% over the same period due to changes in the decision-making of farmer households. These changes will have a negative effect on food security, and appropriate policies should be developed to control the over-expan...