The statistical modeling of potential biogas production capacity from solid waste disposal sites in Turkey

Abstract The main goal of this study is to determine the clean energy production capacity from municipal solid waste disposal sites in Turkey. Also, an attempt has been made to predict the future landfill gas production capacity with emission reduction strategies. The decreased emission factors are estimated according to the IPCC Methodology. The 3rd order polynomial was found to be the best fit according to the main statistical findings. This result is also strengthened by model performance tests which showed 2% uncertainty value. This value is very low as compared to the other models. Methane emission from waste disposal sites is approximately 4% of Turkey's total GHGs emissions throughout the years. If this gas is collected to produce biogas, the 4% of total GHG emissions will be saved and not given to the atmosphere. Using collected methane as fuel for energy production will further decrease the GHG emissions by 1.6% simply because the countries are not obliged to include CO2 emission from biogas consumption into GHG inventory according to the UNFCCC. Based on these results, it is possible to reduce the atmospheric emissions of GHGs and to use this gas in green energy production. There is a very high potential of producing renewable energy in Turkey by using landfill gases and this potential can be used for mitigation of GHGs emissions into the atmosphere. The CH4 production capacity of waste disposal sites is expected to increase up to 5.6 million tons/year by 2030. This means 25.4 million kW/year electricity can be produced from landfill gas. This production will result in 25 million tons of reduction in CO2 eq. emission in Turkey.