Learning-based CO2 concentration prediction: Application to indoor air quality control using demand-controlled ventilation

Abstract There have been increasing concerns over the air quality inside buildings as high levels of bio-effluents can cause nausea, dizziness, headaches, and fatigue to the people working in those spaces. First published in 2004 as Standard 62.1, ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2019 requires highly occupied spaces to implement heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) that can dilute contaminants produced by occupants. In this regard, occupant-centric ventilation control has been regarded as an effective practice to maintain a satisfactory indoor air quality (IAQ) when dealing with highly variable occupancy environments. However, few established models in current literature and practice consider dynamic occupancy behavior and adaptive IAQ control. To address this gap, a dynamic indoor CO2 model is constructed using machine learning algorithms to forecast CO2 concentrations across a range of forecasting horizons. Herein, we tuned and compared six state-of-the-art learning algorithms—including Support Vector Machine, AdaBoost, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and Multilayer Perceptron. The algorithms’ performances are validated using CO2 and historical meteorological data collected from a campus classroom with a variable occupancy rate. Simulation results showed that Multilayer Perceptron can strongly predict the volatile CO2 behavior and also outperforms other algorithms in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, a control strategy capable of modeling and detecting dynamic patterns of CO2 level is utilized to modulate the ventilation rate in real-time and also reduce the energy consumption. The proposed controller reduced the HVAC fan’s energy consumption by 51.4% and provided ventilation as needed per the ASHRAE standards.