Climate change and effects on vegetation in Veracruz, Mexico: an approach using ecological niche modelling

According to the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human activities are the main responsible for global warming due to the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This process is already causing changes in the geographical distribution of species as well as alterations in phenology. With this background, it is interesting to study the expected trends of change to be displayed by flora and fauna to face the new environmental conditions. This paper explores the likely changes in the composition of the main vegetation types in the state of Veracruz, Mexico under a climate change scenario. We analyzed the geographical and ecological patterns of change in a group of 51 characteristic species commonly associated to tropical evergreen forest, coniferous forest and cloud forest present in Veracruz. The approach followed was based on the technique of ecological niche modelling carried out with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) and variables of future climatic condition (located by 2050 in time) estimated for an A2 scenario which is devised for a situation where humanity would be generating medium to high emissions. The results obtained for the current vegetation of Veracruz suggest a potential impact inducing 53% distribution change for tropical evergreen forest, 16% for coniferous forest and 49% for cloud forest. The results also suggest that some species may be extirpated from the state of Veracruz under the conditions expected by 2050, while a few others may find right conditions to increase their distribution.