An economic analysis of thinnings and rotation lengths in the presence of natural risks in even-aged forest stands

Abstract A harvest scheduling model when the natural risk is not only dependent on the age of the forest stand but also on the stock density is presented in this paper. In addition, damages to human lives, human health and infrastructure caused by natural risks are incorporated. Using a conditional current value approach, the optimal thinning and rotation length conditions are determined and used for the qualitative analysis of the course of the optimal volume path under different risks. Also the impacts of external variables such as stand age, interest rate, timber price and damages to human lives etc. to the optimal harvest schedules are derived. The results and dependencies are discussed in detail and compared to findings presented in the literature.