Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of large carnivore depredation on sheep in Europe

Sharing space with large carnivores on a human-dominated continent like Europe results in multiple conflictful interactions with human interests, of which depredation on livestock is the most widespread. Wildlife management agencies maintain compensation programs for the damage caused by large carnivores, but the long-term effectiveness of such programs is often contested. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms driving large carnivore impact on human activities is necessary to identify key management actions to reduce it. We conducted an analysis of the impact by all four European large carnivores on sheep husbandry in 10 European countries, during the period 2010-2015. We ran a hierarchical Simultaneous Autoregressive model, to assess the influence of ecological and anthropogenic factors on the spatial and temporal patterns in the reported depredation levels across the continent. On average, about 35,000 sheep were compensated in the ten countries as killed by large carnivores annually, representing about 0.5% of the total sheep stock. Of them, 45% were recognized as killed by wolves, 24% by wolverines, 19% by lynx and 12% by bears. At the continental level, we found a positive relationship between wolf distribution and the number of compensated sheep, but not for the other three species. Impact levels were lower in the areas where large carnivore presence has been continuous compared to areas where they disappeared and recently returned. The model explained 62% of the variation in the number of compensated sheep per year in each administrative unit. Only 13% of the variation was related to the ecological components of the process. Synthesis and Applications: Large carnivore distribution and local abundance alone are poor predictors of large carnivore impact on livestock at the continental level. A few individuals can produce high damage, when the contribution of environmental, social and economic systems predisposes for it, whereas large populations can produce a limited impact when the same components of the system reduce the probability that depredations occur. Time seems to play in favour of a progressive reduction in the costs associated with coexistence, provided that the responsible agencies focus their attention both on compensation and co-adaptation.