Space Weather Prediction

Abstract : This final report represents a summary of the 6-2 In-House Work Unit (IHWU) 1010RDA1 activity for the period of 1 October 2007 (FY08) through 30 September 2014 (FY14) for AFRL/RVBXS. Members of the AFRL/RVBXS section have broad and deep expertise in observation, analysis, and modeling of solar and heliospheric processes and variability, which is leveraged though collaborative efforts with solar scientists in government, industry and universities. The work unit conducted applied research in support of the AFRL Focused Long-Term Challenge (FLTC) 2.6.3 Integrated Space Environment Forecast Model. It specifically addresses the goals of the FLTC Product 2.6.3.1, Solar Storm Forecasting . The following seven technical projects were identified as the applied research efforts during the duration of this work unit: 1) Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Forecast Model; 2) Validated Sunspot Number Series; 3) Medium-term Forecasts of Major Eruptions; 4) Solar Flare Prediction Model; 5) Long-term Solar Wind Reconstruction; 6) Next Generation Solar Wind Model; and 7) Forecasting F10.7 and Ultraviolet Irradiance.