Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin

Drought frequently impacts both the agricultural productivity and the well-being of farming communities in drought-prone areas of Australia, including the largest agricultural region in the country—the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). Improving drought preparedness of farming communities in the MDB could be achieved by building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought. In this study, a prospective I-EWS was investigated. Farming individuals were interviewed to inductively guide the selection of drought-related indices most appropriate for the study area. Based on interview results and desktop research, five drought-related indices directly relevant to the MDB were selected as inputs to the trigger levels for an I-EWS: the Standardised Precipitation Index, the Vegetation Health Index, Soil Moisture (percent of normal), the likelihood of exceeding median rainfall in a coming month, and the chance of El Nino. Based on these inputs, decision rules were formulated for a staged “WATCH,” “ALERT” and “DECLARATION” drought early warnings. These decision rules were tested for the intense dry period from 2017 to 2019 for five key agricultural Local Government Areas in the Northern MDB. It was found that all three stages of the drought I-EWS were adequately triggered, indicating that a warning lead time of 3–8 months could have been possible in the dry period. Data for the selected inputs are readily obtained from space-based products as well as national meteorological services and would be applicable to regions with limited observing networks or forecast capability. Thus, while the methodologies developed in this study and the resultant outcomes are tailored to the Northern MDB, this research ultimately serves as both a successful proof of concept for the drought EWS as well as a foundational base for the design of an operational user-centred I-EWS in susceptible to drought regions of Australia and other countries.