Running to the mountains: mammal species will find potentially suitable areas on the Andes

Understanding species distribution over time is a key topic of conservation biogeography, especially when it comes to species with low mobility or low adaptability, which may be most affected by climate change. We investigated the past, current and future climate suitability of Dinomys branickii (Rodentia), a species with characteristics that make it especially vulnerable to such changes. We applied climate suitability modeling (CSM) to evaluate how D. branickii responds to environmental changes over time. We performed CSM for the periods of last glacial maximum (LGM), mid Holocene (MH), current (1960–1990) and future (2041–2060). We retained models that presented true skill statistic > 0.4 to project consensus maps. The area of maximum suitability decreased over time (LGM—22.2%; MH—9.4%; current—8.9%; future—7.5%), being restricted to the westernmost portion of the Neotropics, with less adequacy in the Amazon in the future scenario. We observed this decline in the area of climate suitability of D. branickii including areas within protected areas (PAs), in the current (suitable area in 1776 PAs) and future (in 1661 PAs) scenarios. Our results demonstrated the dynamics of climate suitability for D. branickii, indicating that PAs on Llanos, Central Amazon and, predominantly, on the Andean slope may function as a future refuge for the species. We show potential loss of suitable area for this species over time, and preventive actions are thus necessary, such as a connected network of PAs from Amazon to Andes.