Economic risks of reactor outages and accidents

Models were developed for analyses of economic risks from unanticipated events which occur, or could occur, during US LWR plant operation. The models estimate the economic consequences of LWR forced outages and accidents and can be used together with estimates of event frequencies to calculate the expected losses from LWR operational incidents of various severities. Both onsite costs, which either occur at onsite locations or most directly affect the plant licensee, and offsite costs, which most directly affect the public surrounding the plant, are estimated in the models. The models have been used in an example analysis to estimate the expected losses from both routine forced outage events and severe accidents during the remaining lifetime of the Surry No. 2 plant. The results of the analysis are used to draw important conclusions for LWR plant licensees and regulators regarding the operation of LWR plants in the US. In contrast to public health risks, economic risks from US LWR operation are dominated by high frequency, small consequence forced outage events. The economic risks from LWR operation are dominated by onsite losses resulting from replacement power costs for short-term outages.