Démographie spatiale des Balkans : tendances et enjeux Spatial demography of the Balkans: trends and challenges IVème Conférence internationale de Démographie des Balkans IVth International Conference of Balkans Demography

The development of the population in the Republic of Macedonia is characterized with emphasized regional differences. In such sense, very indicative is the example of the Pelagonia and Polog regions, both areas that outstand with largest decline in the growth of the population. In the period between the Censuses of the population 1994-2002 in the Polog region the population increased for 8,5% and in the Pelagonia region decreased for 1,8%. The analysis showed that there are large differences in the development of the population and its age structure as a result of the natural and mechanical movement, especially of the intensive emigration. The changes in the age structure contributed, the Pelagonia region which used to be in stadium of demographic old age to remain in the same. The Polog region although is a high natality area, yet under the influence of the emigration it is caught in a process of demographic aging. The different stadiums determine the declines in the basic functional contingents. The regional differences are expected to continue in the future and the same are identified with the projections of the population in the period 2007-2055. They show that the population in the Pelagonia and Polog regions on short and mid term will keep and deepen the differences in the scope and participation of the age contingents, that will result in change of the stadium of demographic age. The first will be in deep demographic age by the end of 2055, and the second in the lower stadium of demographic age, and in the highest will transfer in 2040. It is characteristic that both regions will keep the same distance in the observation period in the concentration of the basic age functional contingents in relation to the Republic of Macedonia, because they are continuously higher in the Polog region, compared with the Pelagonia region. The total population is expected to decrease but with different intensity. In the Pelagonia region the decrease is for 30,5%, in the Polog region for 19,8% and in the country for 22,8%.