Extreme Wave Analysis by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

Estimating the extreme values of significant wave height (HS), generally described by the HS return period TR function HS(TR) and by its confidence intervals, is a necessity in many branches of coastal science and engineering. The availability of indirect wave data generated by global and regional wind and wave model chains have brought radical changes to the estimation procedures of such probability distribution—weather and wave modeling systems are routinely run all over the world, and HS time series for each grid point are produced and published after assimilation (analysis) of the ground truth. However, while the sources of such indirect data are numerous, and generally of good quality, many aspects of their procedures are hidden to the users, who cannot evaluate the reliability and the limits of the HS(TR) deriving from such data. In order to provide a simple engineering tool to evaluate the probability of extreme sea-states as well as the quality of such estimates, we propose here a procedure based on integrating HS time series generated by model chains with those recorded by wave buoys in the same area.