A Method for Presuming Total Output Fluctuation of Highly Penetrated Photovoltaic Generation Considering Mutual Smoothing Effect

SUMMARY Mutual smoothing effect of renewable energy (RE) is quite important because the amount and cost of countermeasures for maintaining soundness of power systems highly depend on evaluation of the effect. In spite of its importance, there is as yet no established method to evaluate the effect. The authors present a method for presuming the total output fluctuations of highly penetrated RE from a few measured data considering the effect. By analyzing the measured data, existing photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuations are revealed to be coherent at slower swing periods and random at faster swing periods. To represent the PV’s output fluctuation tendencies, a “Transfer Hypothesis” is introduced. A “Constant Transfer Swing Period Hypothesis” and “–20 dB/dec Slope Hypothesis” are also introduced. These hypotheses are verified by direct and indirect methods using the measured data. Only 3 sites’ data are able to presume total fluctuation of 15 sites successfully. The relationship between distance and the transfer swing period for every 2 sites out of the 15 sites agrees with these hypotheses. Finally, the authors show the total fluctuation presumption of highly penetrated PV deployment in the Hokuriku region using the proposed methods. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 186(3): 31–42, 2014; Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI 10.1002/eej.22327